(CTN News) – France is set to hold the first round of its parliamentary elections on Sunday, with opinion polls indicating that the far right has a chance to win in the two-round legislative vote, concluding on July 7.
Here are some crucial details about the election process and what lies ahead.
How Does the Vote Work?
France’s electoral process involves 49 million registered voters across 577 constituencies, each contesting for a seat in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
In the first round, candidates who secure an absolute majority of votes in their constituency are elected outright. However, this scenario is rare, necessitating a second round in most cases.
To qualify for the run-off, candidates must receive first-round votes amounting to at least 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate with the highest votes in the second round wins the seat.
When Will the Results Be Announced?
Voting in the first round concludes at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Sunday, at which time pollsters will publish nationwide projections based on a partial vote count.
These projections are generally reliable. Official results will begin to come in from 8 p.m., with vote counting typically being swift and efficient, leading to the announcement of winners for all, or nearly all, seats by the end of the evening.
Who Will Run the Government?
The president appoints the prime minister, who usually comes from the party with the most seats in the National Assembly.
For the first time in France’s post-war history, opinion polls suggest that the far right could win, with a left-wing union projected to secure the second-largest group and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance potentially coming in third.
However, this election is unprecedented in France, marked by a short campaign period and a disrupted electoral landscape, leaving room for various possible outcomes.
These scenarios include a divided assembly with no clear majority or an alliance of mainstream parties to prevent the far right from gaining power.
An absolute majority in the National Assembly requires at least 289 seats. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) could form a minority government if it wins the most seats without reaching this threshold, though party leader Jordan Bardella, 28, stated that an absolute majority is necessary to implement their reforms.
What Happens Next?
France has experienced three periods of “cohabitation” in its post-war history, where the government differs politically from the president. While the government holds significant domestic power, the president remains the head of the military and has substantial influence on foreign policy.
The division of power on foreign policy matters could impact France’s stance on issues such as the war in Ukraine or European Union policy.
President Macron will have to work with the newly elected parliament for at least a year, after which he has the option to call a snap election. Macron, who secured a second term in April 2022, remains president for three more years, with neither parliament nor the government able to force him out before then.
As France approaches this critical election, the political landscape remains uncertain, with potential for significant shifts in power and policy direction depending on the outcomes of the legislative votes.