(CTN News) – After President Joe Biden’s widely panned performance in Thursday’s presidential debate against former President Donald Trump, some Democrats have openly questioned whether he should remain the party’s nominee for the 2024 election.
Such a high-risk political maneuver would be unprecedented in modern American history.
In the immediate aftermath of the debate, Biden sought to reassure supporters in Atlanta, telling them, “Let’s keep going.” However, the president’s lackluster showing has sparked panic within the Democratic Party about his ability to effectively lead the ticket against Trump.
The Challenge of Replacing a Nominated Candidate
The challenge facing Democrats is that Biden overwhelmingly won the party’s primary votes, and the roughly 3,900 delegates heading to the convention in Chicago this August are beholden to him. To replace Biden as the nominee would require a dramatic and chaotic process not seen in decades.
“It would mean bringing US politics back to the old days, when party bosses jostled to pick a nominee through deal-making in smoke-filled back rooms and endless rounds of voting,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and member of the Democratic National Committee’s rules-making body.
The last time a major party convention failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952, when the Democrats selected Adlai Stevenson after three ballots. Since then, the primary process has become the dominant method for selecting nominees, with conventions serving as a mere formality to ratify the winner.
Joe Biden Potential Replacement Candidates
If Biden were to exit the race, the delegates would have to find a replacement. Vice President Kamala Harris would likely be at the top of the list, but she has struggled with low approval ratings and a rocky start to her tenure.
Other potential contenders could include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg – all of whom had endorsed Biden while harbouring their own presidential ambitions.
Candidates would need to secure signatures from 600 delegates to be nominated, out of the expected 4,672 total delegates in 2024. If no one secures a majority on the first ballot, the convention would become “brokered,” with delegates acting as free agents and negotiating with party leadership to select a nominee.
“It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee,” Kamarck said. “The rules would be established, and there would be roll call votes for the names placed into nomination.”
The Risks of a Contested Convention
The last time a brokered convention occurred was in 1952, when the Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot. The prospect of a similar scenario unfolding in 2024 has sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party, as they grapple with the potential fallout of replacing their incumbent president.
With the general election just months away, the stakes could not be higher. Democrats must weigh the risks of sticking with Biden against the uncertainty of a contested convention and the potential for a divisive internal battle.
The path forward is fraught with peril, and the party’s future may hang in the balance.