The Meteorological Department predicts that La Niña would deliver more rain than usual to Thailand’s northern and northeastern provinces from this month until January, lasting until October.
The southern region will receive less rain in August, but more rain than typical in the next months.
Kanrawee Sitthichawapak, the department’s chief, stated that the present El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over Thailand will shortly transition to La Niña.
She stated that the ENSO phenomena is normal, with the temperature of the Pacific Ocean in the tropical zone falling by an average of -0.9oC to 0.5oC during the last month.
From July to October, temperatures are expected to be 0.2oC -1.0oC higher than typical.
Compared to previous year, there will be more rain in July and August, but less rain from September to November. Temperatures are expected to be slightly higher in the third quarter than they were last year.
El Niño and La Niña and Thailand
According to RISC, El Niño and La Niña are natural occurrences induced by a change in the connection between tides and the atmosphere near the equator in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), causing rapid weather variations.
Thailand had a strong and long-lasting La Niña from September 2020 to February 2024, marking the first occurrence of this phenomenon in the 21st century.
Furthermore, Thailand and many other nations across the world have seen exceptionally severe rain, resulting in flash floods and wild water flowing in many locations, as well as a dry spell that has a direct impact on agriculture.
According to the most current World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assessment, La Niña has deteriorated to a neutral condition (ENSO-Neutral) between March and May.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an increased likelihood of an El Niño from June to the end of 2024. El Niño may produce severe drought in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, including Australia.
El Niño and La Niña are natural events that have occurred for thousands of years. However, as time passes, the severity of the symptoms increases.
They are also caused by climate change, which is predominantly the result of direct and indirect human activity. As a result, lowering greenhouse gas emissions for all of us and all sectors is a critical step toward protecting the world and guaranteeing that all living species can survive in the future.
